The race to dominate the iPhone 5 era is already underway in earnest despite the fact that the iPhone 5 has yet to gain a release date or a single official feature. Whether it be longtime hanger-on AT&T, shiny new partner Verizon, existence-pending T-Mobile, or even outsider Sprint, the carriers are already jockeying for position to see who’s going to be in the pole when it comes time for Apple to launch the iPhone 5 this year. As of today, here are the prospects for the four major U.S. carriers in terms of the position they’ll be in at the time the iPhone 5 is ready to reach your hands.AT&T in pole position: This of course has little to do with who offers the best network or service. At the time the iPhone 5 launches it’ll assuredly be available on both AT&T and Verizon. But AT&T has tens of millions of iPhone users already locked into contracts who would have to pay a financial penalty in order to switch to Verizon for their iPhone 5. Some will, but most won’t. It’s a temporary hold (and a different landscape altogether by the iPhone 6 era), but consider the iPhone 5 release to be AT&T’s last hurrah from a position of pure leverage.
Verizon closing in: Verizon is generally perceived to have a superior network to AT&T. But part of Verizon’s iPhone 5 problem is that with so many Verizon customers opting for the just-launched Verizon iPhone 4 now, relatively few of them will turn around and replace it with a Verizon iPhone 5. So Verizon is counting on its existing customers switching over from phones like Android or BlackBerry, as well as AT&T defectors – but again, the latter is still an expensive proposition until those two-year contracts begin expiring. Still, the iPhone 5 will bring Verizon closer to parity on the iPhone front than it is currently.
T-Mobile in the balance: Now that T-Mobile is about to become part of AT&T, questions abound as to whether this means T-Mobile will automatically get the iPhone 5 at launch or whether the two will still be sufficiently separate carriers by then such that T-Mobile would need to make a separate deal with Apple. And if it’s the latter, would doing so make sense with T-Mobile about to eventually become part of AT&T anyway?
Sprint on the backstretch: On the one hand, Sprint is about to become both the smallest U.S. carrier and the only one without the iPhone – not an ideal combination. But whether that’ll motivate Sprint to push Apple for an iPhone 5 deal could depend on Apple’s willingness to embrace Sprint’s 4G network, which is a core part of the carrier’s marketing efforts.
Here’s more on the iPhone5.
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